Supply and demand of pulp market in China may be restored in 2020
Pulp is a kind of fibrous material which is made from plant fiber by different processing methods. Most of them are original pulp (the same below). Pulp is in the middle of the whole industrial chain, with wood chips, bamboo chips, bagasse, reed and straw in the upstream, corresponding to wood pulp, bamboo pulp, sugarcane pulp, reed pulp and straw pulp. Pulp is divided into wood pulp and non wood pulp. Wood pulp includes coniferous pulp, broad-leaved pulp, natural color pulp and chemical machinery pulp. Non wood pulp includes bamboo pulp, sugarcane pulp, reed pulp and straw pulp. Pulp is widely used, mainly used to make copperplate paper, double offset paper, light paper, white card paper, household paper, etc.
In addition, there is waste paper pulp. Its raw material is waste paper. The downstream is corrugated paper, box board paper, white board paper, newsprint, etc.
The pulp industry has experienced the initial stage, development stage and is currently in the mature stage. The annual growth rate of pulp (primary pulp) output in 2014-2018 is 3.05%, and there are still new capacity and demand release in the next five years, which is still in the mature stage, and the output maintains a low-speed growth. The concentration of global commercial pulp industry is relatively high. The enterprises of coniferous pulp Cr4 account for 37% of the whole industry, and the enterprises of broad-leaved pulp Cr4 account for 54% of the whole industry. Pulp substitutes are relatively limited. The main pulp production enterprises have been in the market for many years, have complete upstream and downstream products, and belong to the capital intensive natural resource industry. The investment cost per ton of pulp (excluding forest land) is about 10 million US dollars, and the entry threshold of the industry is relatively high. However, in order to better control the cost of raw materials and effectively grasp the market share, the pulp factory has adopted merger, merger and new capacity In order to expand production capacity, the paper mill improves the industrial chain by purchasing upstream raw material pulp mill or adding pulp line. The impact of macro-economy on the pulp market is directly reflected in the changes in the supply structure of coniferous pulp brought about by the trade friction between China and the United States and the slowdown of economic growth. As a whole, the volume gap of coniferous pulp exported from China (186800 tons) caused by the trade friction between China and the United States has been replaced by Finland (the volume of coniferous pulp imported from China in the first nine months increased by 163100 tons compared with the same period in 2018). At present, the volume of coniferous pulp imported from China has increased by 163100 tons The second largest source country of leaf pulp is Finland (the total import volume in the first nine months is 1.096 million tons, accounting for 16.81%), while the demand reduction has a more direct impact on the pulp market. In the case of oversupply, the price of coniferous pulp in the first nine months decreased by 1004 yuan / ton, and the price of broad-leaved pulp decreased by 1233 yuan / ton.
